Many bookmakers offer a free bet if you bet on a horse and it comes in second. For such offers, most matched bettors pick a horse with close back and lay odds. Their idea is to reduce the qualifying loss.
In this article, I will explain why using form to pick your selections may be a more profitable strategy. It may also be a safer strategy in relation to gubbings.
A. The Typical Matched Bettor
So, let’s look at how the typical matched bettor deals with an offer, where a free bet is awarded when your horse comes second.
Typically, the matched bettor looks for the closest match on the odds. This method is fast. However, it does not maximise the matched bettor’s chance of winning a free bet. In addition, the matched bettor doesn’t learn anything. I am not talking about learning for the sake of learning.
Some matched bettors eventually become interested in Betfair trading. The trading gurus will tell you that you don’t need to read form. However, for me, reading form has been the key to successful trading on Betfair. This applies to both horse racing and football. Therefore, developing form reading skills as a matched bettor, may help those, who aim to go on to trading on the betting exchanges.
The idea of learning stuff, that is connected to your subject, rather than taking the quickest route, can be applied to life in general. Learning can help you in the task, that you are engaged in at the moment.
More importantly, it can help you find new ideas that might help find a new path when you need to move on. For example, you can make money from matched betting using the quick and dirty methods taught by matched betting gurus. However, once you have cashed the welcome bonuses out, you reach a dead end. Even if you don’t see it as a dead end, you will be spending a lot more time to make money. In addition, the money will be a pittance compared to when you were cashing out welcome bonuses.
Anyway, let’s get into 10 form criteria to increase your chances of getting a free bet.
B. “Free Bet if your Horse comes Second” Strategy
1. Only use Bookmakers, who offer Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG)
Although this might seem obvious, we would only use bookmakers, who give bets odds guaranteed (BOG) for your winners. Therefore, if your horse drifts and wins, you have a chance of winning extra money.
2. Type of Race – Stick to Handicaps
Horse races can be divided into handicaps and non-handicaps. We should usually focus on handicaps. The reason for this, is that there is usually more exposed form on horses in handicap races. To reduce your chances of getting gubbed, you want to look like a regular form reading punter and not like a matched bettor.
There is an exception to the handicap rule. We want to exclude nursery handicaps on the flat. Nurseries are handicap races for 2 year olds. Because the horses are so young, there is usually a limited amount of form in these races.
There are also exceptions to avoiding non-handicaps. The high class non-handicaps, that include groups races on the flat and grade races on the jumps, often have bookmakers’ offers associated with them. As these types of races are popular with the betting public, we can bet on these without fear of gubbings.
3. Look for a Potential Winner
Generally, you should be backing the favourite. Here’s why. Historical statistics show that, if you had backed all favourites to win over a period of time, you would have lost money. If you had backed all second favourites, you would have lost more money than backing the favourites. If you back all third favourites, over the same time period, you would lose even more money than backing second favourites.
This means that the favourite is generally the best value bet for a win. Although we want the horse to come second, if your horse wins, you qualify for BOG. The favourite should win and therefore, qualify for BOG more often than the second or third favourite.
Another reason for choosing the favourite, is that many losing favourites come in second. However, the chance of a favourite coming in second depends on other form factors.
4. Look for a Last Time Out Winner
In the racing publications, you will see the form figures next to a horses name.
For example, 012-301 Horse’s Name
The numbers represent the horse’s placings in its last 5 races, with the most recent race on the right. The “1” at the far right means that the horse came first last time it raced. The numbers means where the horse was placed in previous races with “0” meaning unplaced. The “-“ means that the races before the dash were last season and the races that come after the dash are this season’s races.
A last time out winner will have the number “1” at the far right of its form figures. For example, the form figures 052301 indicate that a horse won its last race.
There are several reasons why I choose last time out winners.
Firstly, trainers may try to string a few wins together, while the horse is on form. Ideally, the horse will come second. However, for a horse to come second, it has to be trying to win.
Secondly, the horse may be ahead of the handicapper. In the UK, horses are given an official rating by the British Horseracing Authority. The person allocating this rating is known as “the handicapper”. In a race, each horse carries a weight that is based on its official rating. The aim of the handicapper is to give each horse a weight, such that the all the horses will finish in a dead heat. This never happens but that is the theory. After a horse has raced, it will be reassessed by the handicapper and its official rating and weight will be adjusted.
For this reason, in handicaps, jockeys often try to win races by a narrow margin even if the horse could have won by a longer distance. The idea is that less weight will be added to a horse, that won narrowly, compared to a horse that won by a longer distance.
The third reason that I choose last time out winners is because, if they get beaten, they will often get beaten by one horse. In other words, if they don’t come first, they will often come second.
The fourth reason is that you look like a form reader to a bookmaker, rather than matched bettor, who is just looking for a close match on the odds. Form readers are less likely to get gubbed, if they lose in the long run. However, if you are identified as a matched bettor, you will get gubbed. This is because a form reader is seen as a gambler, who is taking a risk. A matched bettor is seen as someone, who takes money, without taking a risk.
5. Avoid horses that have the form figure “F”, “P” or a “U” in their last 6 races
The symbols “F”, “P” and “U”, stand for fell, pulled up and unseated rider, respectively.
For example, 11PFU1 means that the horse won its last race. It unseated its rider in the race before (ie 2 races ago). In the race before that, it fell (3 races ago). In the race before that, it was pulled up (ie 4 races ago).
We want the horse to come second. Therefore, we don’t want it to fall, get pulled up or unseat its jockey.
6. Over jumps, avoid horses that make a lot of mistakes at hurdles or fences
When you click on a horse’s name in the Racing Post or Sporting Life, a pop-up appears. This will show a list of the horse’s previous races, with the most recent race at the top of the list. If you click on a race, you will see the comments for how the horse ran.
The reason that you don’t want your horse to make a lot of mistakes is because there is more risk of the horse not completing the race. Even if it does complete the race, a bad mistake can cause a horse to lose a lot of ground.
7. Over jumps, make sure that your horse is running over the same type of obstacles as in its previous race.
There are 3 main types of races in National Hunt racing. These include hurdles, chases and national hunt flat races. National Hunt Flat races are also known as “bumpers”. These are non-handicaps and therefore, for current purposes, we will leave these out . However, if a horse won its last race over hurdles, you want to make sure that it is racing over hurdles today. Similarly, if a horse won its last race over fences, you want to make sure it is running over fences today. Just in case you don’t know, fences are the obstacles that chasers jump over.
Usually, horses do run over the same type of obstacle. So, it is easy to forget to check this one.
8. On the flat, longer races are better than short races
Horses that specialise over 1m 4f or longer, tend to be more consistent on the flat. At the other end of the spectrum, 5f and 6f sprinters tend to be less consistent. You will often see a sprinter win impressively, and totally not show up in its next race. I don’t know why exactly. One reason is that, if a horse has a bad start in a sprint, it is more difficult for it to catch up compared to a horse running in a long distance race. Flat horses start in the starting stalls. The number of the starting stall is known as the draw. Most tracks favour horses drawn in either low numbered or high numbered stalls. Therefore, if your horse is drawn unfavourably, it may not be able to find a good position in a short race.
It doesn’t really matter why short distance horses are less consistent. We just want to choose longer distance runners. In National Hunt racing, the minimum distance is around 2 miles. Therefore, distance isn’t an issue over the jumps.
9. It’s preferable if the horse has won over today’s distance and going
You usually need to know if the horse has won its last race over today’s distance. You can check this by clicking on the horse’s name on the race card in the Racing Post or the Sporting life. The going refers to the state of the ground. Horses tend to have a preference for a particular surface.
Let’s look at distance first. We have already decided that contenders for a bet have to be running over a distance of 1m 4f or longer. In addition, we are looking for last time out winners.
If a horse is running over a distance that is within 2 furlongs of the distance in its previous race, it probably will get the new distance. For example, I would be fine backing a horse that is going up from 1m 4f to 1m 6f or a horse coming back in distance from 1m 6f to 1m 4f.
I wouldn’t be happy if a horse is running over a new distance has a difference of 3f or more than it its previous race. If a horse runs over a longer distance, it might perform poorly because of lack of stamina. If the horse runs over a shorter distance, it may perform poorly because it can’t keep up with the pace. Shorter distance races tend to be run at a faster pace that longer distance races.
There are exceptions to these rules. If a horse won its last race over a shorter distance, I would consider how it won in its last race. For example, let’s say that the horse won a 2m race over jumps in its previous race and today, it is running over a distance of 2m 4f. If it won its last race easily, I would be happy to back it and hope it comes second. If it won it last race, with a hard fought finish, I wouldn’t back it over a longer distance.
You can get this information in the racing comments in the sporting newspapers. If the comments include words like “easily”, “comfortably”, “quickened” or “canter”, the horse won easily. I would be ok with the phrase “pushed out”, which means the jockey just used his or her hands to get the horse to speed up at the end of the race. If the comments include words such as “ridden” (jockey used hands and heels), “driven” (jockey used whip), or “all out” (jockey used hands, heels and whip), it means that the horse had a tough race.
We want our horse to come second. A horse that won easily might run out of finishing speed at a longer distance. By contrast, a horse that was close to its limit in its previous race, may struggle to complete a longer distance.
The same may apply to the going. If a horse doesn’t run well on the going, it may lack the ability to accelerate in the final stages of the race. However, some horses will completely fail to show up if they don’t run well on a particular going. Therefore, it may be best to avoid horses that haven’t got proven form on the going, unless they were easy winners in their previous race.
If you can’t be bothered to read the racing comments and make a judgement, you could just stick to horses that have won over today’s distance and going.
10. The horse should have had its previous race within the last month
You can see the number of days since a horse’s last run in the racing newspapers. You can also get this information on Betfair. You want the horse to be on form. Therefore, a recent run is necessary.
There is an exception to this rule. In high class races (ie Grade races over jumps and Group races on the flat), horses don’t tend to race as often as lower class horses. High class horses are often only brought out for important races. Some may have a warm up race leading up to an important race. However, many do not.
You will often get offers in these types of races. Therefore, this rule can be broken for top class races.
C. Comment
It might seem like a lot of hassle to check the form for the purposes of winning a free bet. Once you get used to reading form, it just takes a couple of minutes. Reading form takes a lot longer to explain, than it does to do it. In any case, if betting shop punters can read form, I’m sure that matched bettors can.
You don’t need to stick to these criteria like glue. The criteria are meant as guidelines. There will be some races where you can’t meet all the criteria. For example, there might not be a last time out winner in the race. If there is, it might not be the favourite or it might not have won over the distance and going.
By the way, this type of form reading is not sufficient for attempting to become a profitable punter. There are a few other important variables. That’s a subject for another article.