Trading current scores is a popular method. To be successful, you need to choose which current scores are best for trading and you need to know how these odds change throughout a football match. Trading is gambling. This article is meant to describe how odds change throughout a football match. It is not meant as a system that readers can follow.
You should note that the ideas in this post only apply to matches, where the 2 teams are closely matched. You have an advantage in these matches, in that the odds will move in the same way and by the same magnitude whichever side scores. In addition, the odds will change in the same direction if neither team scores.
In this post, I will deal with the following 2 main situations:
- When a goal is not scored
- When a goal is scored
I will use a match between Chelsea and Tottenham as an example. The odds are as follows:
| Chelsea | Draw | Tottenham | |
| Odds | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
A. Current Scores and Connecting Scores
In this article, I will use the terms “Current Scores” and “Connecting Scores” to mean the following:
- Current Score is the score at any moment in time – when no goals have been scored the current score is 0-0
- Connecting scores are the next possible scores, should either side score a goal – when no goals have been scored the connecting scores are 1-0 and 0-1
1. No Goals are Scored
Current Score and Connecting Scores Reduce Until Around the 65th minute
From the beginning of the match, the odds on 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 will steadily decrease. This gradual reduction in the odds will last until around the 65th minute of the game.
65th minute onwards – Odds on Current Score continue to reduce; odds on all other scores increase
From approximately the 65th minute, the odds of the current score (which, in this case is 0-0) will reduce, while the odds on all other scores (including connecting scores, 1-0 and 0-1) will gradually increase.
2. Goal is Scored
When a goal is scored by either team, 0-0 and one of the one goal score lines are dead.
The change in the odds of the new current score (1-0 or 0-1) is contingent on when the goal was scored and how much action is anticipated in the remainder of the match.
For this example, I will assume that first goal is scored by the home team.
After an Early Goal – Increased Odds for 1-0 followed by a Decline
If the first goal comes early (eg in the first 15 minutes), the odds of the new current score, 1-0, are very likely to increase. The market will be expecting more goals.
In a game that is low in end to end action, the odds will reduce for 1-0 if the goal is scored around the 20th minute or later.
If the game has had a lot of action, the first goal can result in an increase of the odds of 1-0 up to the 50th minute of the game.
You should note that, when I say that the odds may increase, they might not increase to their pre-match level. What I mean is that the odds may increase above the level just before the goal was scored.
Table 1: The Effects of the First Goal on the odds of 1-0
| Early (1st Half) | Late (1st Half) | Early (2nd Half) | Late (2nd Half) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW ACTION | NS | Reduce | Reduce | Reduce |
| HIGH ACTION | Increase | NS | Reduce | Reduce |
B. Correct Score 1-1
While trading the odds on the draw is well known, the correct score 1-1 provides relatively safe trading opportunities. However, compared to trading the odds on the draw, trading the odds on correct score 1-1, isn’t as well-documented.
I have written a post on how the odds on the draw change in football matches, where the 2 teams are closely matched.
1. No Goals are Scored
Stable for around 25 minutes
The correct score, 1-1, will usually stay steady for the first 25 minutes of the match. After 25 minutes, the odds for 1-1 will gradually drift.
2. Goal is Scored
As with the draw, effects of a goal on the 1-1 correct score depend on:
- Whether a lot of goals are anticipated
- The time in the game that the goal was scored
Low Action Games – Odds usually reduce
In a match that is low in end to end action, the odds on 1-1 will decrease after the first goal.
High Action Games – Odds increase up to 30 mins
In a match, where a lot of goals are expected, the odds of 1-1 are likely to increase if the first goal is scored in the first 30 minutes of the game. However, if the first goal is scored in the second half, the odds of 1-1 are likely to reduce.
Medium Action Games – Odds increase up to 15 mins; Odds decrease 31 mins onwards
A goal in the first 15 minutes will generally result in the odds of 1-1 increasing. From the 15th to the 30th minute, a goal won’t significantly change the odds of 1-1. After the 30th minute, a goal will cause the odds of 1-1 to shorten.
Kick-off Odds versus Drifted Odds
In all cases, if the first goal is scored late in the game, the odds on 1-1 might not shorten compared to the odds at kick-off. As I have mentioned, after the 25th minute, the odds of 1-1 will start to drift. A late goal will almost always shorten the odds of 1-1 compared to its drifted odds. However, a late goal might not necessarily reduce the odds below the pre-match odds.
As you would expect, this will depend on how late the first goal is and the amount of action in the game so far.
Table 2: The Effects of the First Goal on the odds of 1-1
| 0- 15 mins (1st Half) | 16 – 30 mins (1st Half) | 31 – 45 mins (1st Half) | Early (2nd Half) | Late (2nd Half) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW ACTION | Reduce | Reduce | Reduce | Reduce | NS |
| MEDIUM ACTION | Increase | NS | Reduce | Reduce | NS |
| HIGH ACTION | Increase | Increase | NS | Reduce | NS |
C. All Other Correct Scores
The other correct scores include all scorelines, where one team has scored 2 goals or more.
1. No Goals are Scored
In general, all other correct scores will drift, from the start of the match, if a goal is not scored.
2. Goals is Scored
If a goal is scored, the odds of all other correct scores will move in.
The odds of the new connecting scores (ie scores that can be reached with one goal) will generally move in sharply. For example, let’s say the reaches 2-0. The new connecting scores will be 2-1 and 3-0.
D. Conclusions
While laying the draw is probably the most popular trading method, the current scores offer some low risk opportunities. You should be aware that the times given for the changes in the odds are estimates. Whether a match is high, medium or low action can change during a match.
For example, a game might be predicted to have a lot of goals pre-match. However, both teams might start the game cautiously, which might reduce the amount of end to end action. This might be reflected in the odds.