If you want to lay the draw and there is a clear favourite, you should look at the form of the teams. You don’t need to do an in-depth study. You just want to make sure that the favourite is on form and preferably, the non-favourite is off form.
Basically, you should look at the past few matches. The ideal situation is where:
The favourite has won all of the games in which the team was expected to win
The non-favourite has lost or drawn matches that the team was expected to win The reason for this is because, you will make money when the favourite scores the first goal. However, you are likely to break even or even lose a small amount of money when the underdog scores the first goal.
You also need an understanding of how the odds on the draw are likely to change.
When there is a clear favourite and the draw is the outsider, the odds change slightly differently relative to matches in which both teams are equally fancied to win.
In this post, I will deal with the following 2 main situations:
- When a goal is not scored
- When a goal is scored
Trading is gambling. This article is not meant as a system that readers can follow. It is simply meant to generate ideas.
I will use a match between Bournemouth and Stoke. The odds are as follows:
| Bournemouth | Draw | Stoke | |
| Odds | 2.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
If a goal is scored, the odds of the team that scored the goal will reduce and the odds of the other team will increase.
However, we are interested in, whether the odds of the draw increase to a level above the odds at kick-off.
Important: You should note that, in this example, the favourite is not odds-on and the draw is the outsider. The odds for the draw change differently, when one of the teams is an odds-on favourite, the draw is second favourite and the underdog is the rank outsider. I won’t be dealing with odds-on favourites in this post.
A. How the Draw Odds Change
In the absence of a goal, the odds of the draw will decrease. Depending on the level of action in the game, the time at which the odds on the draw starts to reduce will vary.
1. An Action Packed Start
If the beginning of the game has a load of goal-scoring opportunities, the odds on the draw will remain stable for up to 15 minutes.
Once the odds on the draw start to reduce, they will continue downwards until one of the teams scores a goal.
2. A Slow Start
If the beginning of the match is lacking in goal-scoring opportunities, the odds on the draw will reduce early. If the match was predicted to be a low-scoring affair, the odds on the draw will reduce from the start of the game.
B. The First Goal is Scored
Obviously, a goal will alter the odds on the draw.
The magnitude of the change will depend on whether the favourite or the underdog scores the goal.
If the favourite scores the first goal, the odds for the draw will increase to a level that is significantly higher than the pre-match odds.
Although the odds of the draw will increase if the underdog scores the first goal, they will not increase as much as when the favourite scores.
1. First Half Goal
If the favourite scores the first goal, the odds of the draw will rise to a level that is above the odds at kick-off.
If non-favourite scores the first goal, the odds of the draw will increase. However, the magnitude of the increase depends on when the goal is scored. If the goal is scored in the first half, the odds of the draw may rise to around pre-match levels. Often, the odds will not rise to their level at kick-off.
If the favourite is a team that tends to score a lot of goals and the underdog goes up by a goal, the odds on the draw might not increase to pre-match levels until around the 75th minute of the game.
2. Second Half Goal
If the favourite scores the first goal of the match, the odds on the draw will still increase above pre-match levels.
If the non-favourite scores early in the first half, the odds on the draw may increase above pre-match levels. The later in the second half that the non-favourite scores, the higher the rise in the odds of the draw.
When the non-favourite scores first, you can rely on an increase above pre-match draw odds after the 75th minute.
C. Conclusion
Table 1 summarises how the odds on the draw change following the first goal.
| 0 – 45 mins | 46 – 75 mins | 76 – 90 mins | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | Increase (above pre-match odds) | Large Increase | Large Increase |
| Underdog | Increase (but below pre-match odds) | Increase (but possibly below pre-match odds) | Increase (above pre-match odds) |
1. Pre-Match Odds
The changes depend on how much difference there was between the pre-match odds of the favourite and underdog.
Let’s say that the difference in the pre-match odds between the favourite and underdog, were closer than in the Bournemouth versus Stoke match. In this case, a goal would result in smaller increases for the draw odds when the favourite scores the first goal. Conversely, a goal would result in larger increases for the draw odds when the underdog scores first.
2. In-Play Action
Another factor that will influence the changes in the odds of the draw is who appears to be dominating the game. If the underdog scores first and appears to have more control in the game than expected, you might see larger increases in the odds of the draw.
3. Laying the Draw
If you are looking to lay the draw (and then, bet on the draw immediately after the first goal is scored), you should be focused on the favourite. You can’t rely on making money if the first goal is scored by the non-favourite. This is why you should look at the recent form of both teams. The way you will make money is when the favourite scores first. Therefore, the favourite’s form is of particular importance.
When there is a favourite and an underdog, you can lose money when the non-favourite scores.