Why DOBBing is Theoretically a Value Trade
Theoretically, there is potential value in DOBBing. I’m not someone, who uses the word “value” loosely. In this post, I will assume that you know what DOBBing is. If you don’t know what it is, it is explained in the first chapter of my ebook. In addition, I have written an article, called “Dobbing Strategy using Statistics and Front Running Horses [Debunked]: Learn this Method Instead!”
Whenever I develop an idea into a strategy, I always want to know there is a solid theoretical foundation for the strategy to have potential to win. I never try a trading idea out, simply because someone told me it works.
In this post, I will explain why DOBBing has potential value as a trading strategy. If you prefer, you can watch the video version of this post (which includes more detail).
A. The Theory Why There Should be Value in DOBBing
We know that the Betfair SP is highly efficient. What do we mean by “efficient”? We mean that the SP reflects the horse’s probability of winning the race.
Importantly, the SP doesn’t reflect a horse’s probability of DOBBing.
I will explain this with 2 extreme examples. So, we’ll look at 2 fictitious horses, namely Horse A and Horse B.
1. Horse A is a Consistent Horse
Horse A has odds of 10. The horse is consistent and always runs to form. The form indicates that Horse A is marginally better than the other horses, in the field. However, Horse A doesn’t have a turn of foot. In other words, the horse is unable to accelerate at the end of a race. This means that Horse A is often beaten by a challenger, at the tail end of the race.
Most races are not true run races. Therefore, even if Horse A is marginally the fastest horse in the race, the horse is likely to face a challenge towards the end of the race.
2. Horse B is Very Fast, but Makes a lot of Jumping Errors
Horse B is a National Hunt horse. This horse also has odds of 10. The horse is such a bad jumper, that he only makes it around the course 10% of the time. However, Horse B runs so fast, that he is guaranteed to win if he completes the course.
In this example, both Horses A and B have odds of 10.0. Let’s assume that these odds correctly reflect the horses’ probability of winning the race. It should be obvious that, Horse A has a much better chance of DOBBing, compared to Horse B.
3. Analysis
Our edge comes from the fact that the betting exchanges can’t yield SPs, that simultaneously reflect a horse’s win and DOBBing chances. If they tried to account for DOBBing, they would be leaving value for layers of the win price. Incidentally, this is also why bookmakers dislike and restrict shrewd each-way backers. An each-way bet consists of a bet for the win and a bet for the place. For example, if you back a horse for £10 each-way, you are betting £10 for the win and £10 for the place. Even with their big overround, it is difficult for the bookmakers to create a single list of odds, whereby they are always on the right side of value for both the win and place odds.
For example, let’s assume that Horse A has a good chance of dobbing. If the betting exchange tried to reduce Horse A’s SP from 10.0 to 9.0, in order to avoid giving value for DOBBing, they would be leaving value for pre-race layers.
The betting exchanges are unlikely to make, such an adjustment because if you back or lay all horses at 10.0, you should only break even. In other words, betting exchange odds are known to be efficient on the SP, but not on the horse’s chances of dobbing.
In the example of Horse A and Horse B, both have equal winning chances. However, they have completely different dobbing chances. Therefore, if the betting exchange SPs are efficient for the win, they can’t also be efficient for the DOB.
So, the bottom line is that there is likely to be value in DOBBing. However, we still have to find this value.
DOBBing For Profit [FREE eBook] by Artimus Paint
I’ve written a 27 page free ebook on Dobbing. It’s a quality no-fluff ebook that is worth reading if you can read or are willing to learn to read form. My ebook gives you my DOBBing method and I don’t hold information back.
As I’ve said, I don’t use statistics or front-runner methods. I just use form and trainer patterns. I will explain the best and quickest way to find trainer betting patterns. You can use this trainer betting pattern model for any trade.
So, if you are interested in learning more about DOBBing, you can pick up my free ebook.
At this point some readers might be thinking that, doesn’t this mean that we can go with DOBBing statistics? The answer is no, it doesn’t. When a horse has high DOBBing statistics, the in-play market will eventually adjust. Once the market notices that the horse doesn’t show any finishing speed at the tail end of the race, in order for the horse to DOB, it might need to perform better than it has in past races.
The other point is that, not all horse races are the same. The race conditions, such as the going might not be suited to the horse. In addition, there might be strong competition in this race, compared to past races. If the consistent horse is in a race, in which it is not good enough to win any prize money, the trainer might tell the jockey to go easy on the horse. The trainer might think, if he can’t get any prize money, he might as well try and get the handicapper to knock a couple of pounds off the horse’s weight for a future race.
I’m not going into form in the video. I explain how I use form for DOBBing in the free ebook. What I will say is that I look for horses, that have had a good last time out race and the form suggests that the horse could win today’s race.
This is to do with trainer’s motivation. If the horse has a good chance of winning the race, the trainer may be motivated to run to horse well.
What I’m trying to do, is pick out horses that, on form figures haven’t been doing particularly well. However, the horse’s LTO race suggests that the horse is on form. In the races previous to its LTO race, the horse might not have run well or it could have excuses for not running well. In other words, it could have been running over unsuitable conditions or against tougher competition.
3. Trainer Betting Patterns
I will explain how I learnt that trainers have different methods. I will also explain how following the form journey leads to the next idea.
B. What I Learnt as a Punter
When I first started backing horses, I used the form book to develop strategies. My first ever strategy was based around backing last time out winners over the jumps. I was selective about which last time out winners, that I backed. In addition, I had strict criteria. After the first season, I had lost money.
I analysed the data and I found that there were some trainers, whose horses, that I frequently won on, while there were others, who I consistently lost on. Because my strategy involved betting on last time out winners to win again, I came to the following conclusion:
Some trainers are better than others, at keeping horses on form.
I changed my strategy and just focused on the trainers, who I felt did keep their horses on form. That’s when I started to gradually claw my money back.
As I got deeper into racing, I started looking at different strategies. I noticed that different trainer’s horses fitted each strategy.
Therefore, my conclusion that, some trainers are better than others, at keeping horses on form, probably included a false assumption.
My false assumption was that all trainers are trying to keep their horses on form. This is unlikely to be the case. There are trainers, who bring their horses to form and try to string a few wins together. There, are other trainers, who allow their horses to drop down in the handicap and then, try to win a race. Then, they allow the horse to drop down in the weights again, before trying to win another race. There are many other methods that trainers might have.
The conclusion that I have now is that:
All trainers have their own training methods. Each trading method that we use, taps into certain trainers’ training methods.
You don’t need to know what the trainers’ training method is. You just need to know that certain trades will work with certain trainers. DOBBing speed horses is no different. There are some trainers, whose horses, I won’t touch with a bargepole, even if the form looks perfect. There are other trainers, whose horses that I know will run a good race, when the form is in their horses’ favour.
In my book, Directional Trading on Horse Racing, I explained several ways in which we can look for trainer betting patterns. Here, I will explain the easiest way.
Firstly, you start with an idea. I call it an idea, because only, once your idea becomes successful, you can call it a strategy.
The second thing you can do, is pick an easily identifiable horse based on its form. You want the horse-type to be narrowed down.
The third thing that you do is list which trainers the trade works on and the trainers your strategy doesn’t work on.
What I am trying to do here, is keep the first and second factors as constants. DOBBing is constant. It is not a variable. The horse, strictly speaking isn’t a constant because no 2 horses are exactly the same. However, if you can narrow down the horse type, on the basis of form, it can be regarded as more of a constant than a variable.
The third factor is the only variable. We are trying to divide trainers into those that our DOBBing strategy works on and those that it doesn’t work on.
So, you have to keep a spreadsheet and list trainers as you go along. This isn’t as time-consuming as you might think. However, all you need to do is put a trainer name into an excel spreadsheet.
In addition, look at the betting during the day. There can be patterns. For example, there is a trainer, whose horses DOB when they drift and are heavily backed during the last 2 minutes pre-race. However, if his horse follows the right-hand graph and gets backed all day and drifts after 2 minutes pre-race, the horse is a complete non-trier. I don’t why this is the case. Perhaps, connections to the horse wanted to steam in at 2 minutes pre-race. If the horse gets backed during the day, connections might feel that they are too late to get value. Therefore, they will save the win up for another day.
So, it’s basically about creating a list and creating notes in a spreadsheet.
If you do this, you will be surprised at how often the same names come up in both groups that is, the trainers the strategy works on and the trainers it doesn’t.
This is where strategies lead to more strategies. When the form meets, my DOBBing criteria, I watch the race and in the in-play odds.
I also do this when trainers are in my negative list. You can divide the negative horses into 2 categories – those where the odds shorten but don’t DOB and those, where the odds pretty much only lengthen. Basically, the horse looks like a non-trier. It never gets into the race at all.
With the non-trier category, I lay some of these horses for a small amount of money and allow the horse to run. I’m laying a small amount of money, for a relatively big liability. However, if I figure its value, I have to go for it.
So, this is an example of how one strategy can lead to another strategy. It’s not as if I had to look for the second strategy. It just presented itself.
I use this model of analysis for all my trades. You just have to start by defining the type of trade that you are going for. With the horse, it is usually easier, if you are looking at horses, with good recent form. This is because, when there is hidden information, stables have more options on how to bet on the horse. This will make it harder to find patterns.