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A. Dobbing Strategies
The word “dob” is an abbreviation for double or bust. In Figure 1, I show an example of a dob, that I plan to do later today.
There are 2 parts to dobbing.
Part 1. You place a back bet on a horse pre-race.
For this example, I plan to back the horse Hats off to Larry at minimum odds of 10.0 for a stake of £10.
Part 2. You lay the horse in-play for:
- Double the stake, that you backed the horse for. In this case double the stake is £20
- At ½ the odds that you backed the horse at. As the back odds were 10.0, ½ the odds are 5.0.
When we lay, we are keeping the bet on in-play. Therefore, we click on “Keep” and then, on “Update”.
This ensures that our lay bet will be kept, when the race goes in-play.
If the lay bet gets matched, we win £9.80, whatever the outcome of the race.
If the lay bet doesn’t get matched, we lose our back bet of £10.
This is why dobbing is called “double or bust”. When you win, you don’t quite get double because of the commission.
Figure 1: An Example of dobbing
The example above shows how a dobbing bet works. I placed an order to back Hats of to Larry at 10.0. Then, I placed an order to lay the horse at 5.0. The horse did DOB.
One of the advantages of dobbing is that, once your back bet has been matched, you don’t need to be at your computer for the race.
Dobbing is just a method of trading. You won’t win by dobbing unless you have a strategy.
I will explain 2 strategies.
Firstly, I will explain the strategy, that gurus put out there. I will explain why this strategy is flawed.
Secondly, I will explain my strategy.
For a detailed method of how I select horses for DOBBing, I recommend that you download my 27 page FREE eBook “DOBBing For Profit – Using Horse-Racing Form”. You will see the book in the sidebar.
B. The Guru Strategy
There are 2 main aspects to the guru strategy.
1. Pick a front runner.
2. Look up, what they often refer to, as “statistics”.
Let’s examine why these are both flawed ideas.
1.. The Front Runner Fallacy
The idea of picking a front runner, appears to be based on the idea that, in-play traders will see that your horse is leading in the race and therefore, they will back the horse.
a) In-Play Traders and Punters do not Overestimate the Winning Chances of Front Runners
In-play traders and punters have seen a horse race before. They know that most front runners will run out of stamina and will fade away at some point.
The chances of your in-play bet on a front runner getting matched, will be slim if your horse wasn’t fancied in the pre-race market.
You will often see hold-up horse’s odds reduce in-play before they have made a move.
So, what are in-play traders looking at? One of the things, that are looking at is, the body language of a horse. They are looking at whether the horse appears physically powerful in running.
It’s a bit like, when you see someone jogging on the street. Some joggers appear relaxed and are jogging, with an upright posture. Others are red in the face and sweating and their body posture makes them look as if they are tiring.
2. There may be More than One Front Runner in the Field
The second problem is that there might be more than one front runner in the field. If you have more than one horse competing to be the front runner, they can burn each other out early in the race.
3. Front Runners only Perform Well at Certain Race Tracks and Over Certain Distances at these Race Tracks
Front runners are known to do well at some courses, such as Chester, Catterick and Beverley. However, at other courses, there is either no bias towards front runners or there is a bias against front runners. For example, at Sandown, Haydock and on the Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton, the bias favours hold-up horses.
There are also courses, where front runners are favoured over sprint distances but not over longer distances.
4. Horses change Run Styles
Horses have different run styles for different races. Trainers change their tactics on their own horse, depending on the other horses in the race. A horse, that is usually held-up, may become a front runner for a particular race.
Why might a trainer do this? Let’s say that the trainer has the fastest horse in the race. If his horse is held up, the strategy is that, at the tail end of the race, the horse accelerates and overtakes all the horses, in front of him. For this to work, he needs a fast run race.
This is because the trainer needs all the other horses, in the race to be tired, for his horse’s pace at the tail end of the race to be the deciding factor. In a slow run race, the other horses will also be able to quicken towards the end of the race. This means that the hold-up horse will have difficulty overtaking other horses.
For this reason, if the trainer believes that the front runners are going to set a slow pace, he might decide to run his horse from the front. This will mess things up for anyone dobbing a slow front runner.
2. The “Statistical” Fallacy
I use quotation marks for the word “statistical”. This is because the so-called dobbing statistics, that you see on various websites, are not really statistics. They are just a bunch of numbers.
This issue of calling any collection of numbers, “statistics”, occurs everywhere in the trading community.
Typically, the guru will tell you or imply that, if a horse has dobbed more than 50% of the time, in its last 10 races, it means that it has been running well and has more than a 50% chance of dobbing in its next race.
This is an example of the “inverse gambler’s fallacy”.
a) The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Inverse Gambler’s Fallacy
If you toss a coin 10 times and more heads than tails land, does this mean that heads has more chance of landing on the next flip of a coin? Of course not.
If you believe that heads is more likely to land, just because more heads than tails have landed in the past, you are falling for the inverse gambler’s fallacy.
If you believe that, because lots of heads have landed in the past, tails must have an increased probability of landing in a future coin toss, you are falling for the gambler’s fallacy.
b) Monte Carlo, August 18th, 1913 – The Origin of the Gambler’s Fallacy Concept
To explain the gambler’s fallacy and the inverse gambler’s fallacy, let’s go back to the origins of these concepts. The date is August 18th, and the year is 1913. The place is Monte Carlo.
In the Grand Casino, there was a game of roulette taking place.
The ball landed on black 26 spins in a row.
The story is that, during this parlay, most people were betting on red. Their “logic” was that, because black had turned up several times in a row, red was due to come up. The fact is that, the odds of red and black turning up, hadn’t changed.
So, the gambler’s fallacy is held by people, who believe that red is more likely to land, after black has landed several times in a row. The inverse gambler’s fallacy is held by the people, who believe that black is on a hot streak. These people are likely to continue betting on black.
3. “The Horse Race is not a Random Event” Argument
Now, some people may believe that a horse race isn’t a random event. If your selections aren’t based on form, you are treating a horse race as a random event. There are several factors that affect the chance of your horse dobbing. If you are not looking at these, you are betting or trading, with your eyes shut.
The most obvious factors are how good the other horses in the race are and the race conditions.
I’ve tested the front runner/statistics theory with £2 stakes and it does NOT work!
C. How the Odds Change In-Play
As an ex-punter, I can tell you that finding winners, at odds of 10.0 or bigger, is difficult. However, it’s not impossible.
Back in the day, I was more of a favourite backer. However, I used to have speculative bets on longshots as well. Most of the time, the longshots used to look as if they were going to win, but they didn’t quite make it.
When you are betting, this sucks!
However, when you are dobbing, this is a pretty good scenario. This is because if your horse has a chance of winning late on in the race, it is likely to dob. ,
If you have never read form, this might seem like a difficult idea. However, reading form is not difficult.
We first need to understand when we expect our in-play bet to get matched.
1. The 4 Stages of a Horse Race
I will break a horse race down into 4 stages.
Stage 1: The horses start the race.
Stage 2: The horses are running at a steady pace.
I don’t imagine much dobbing takes place during Stages 1 and 2. You could get a lucky DOB, if a short-priced favourite falls early in a race in jump racing. In flat racing, you might get a DOB, if a short-priced favourite messes up the start.
Stage 3: Some horses start to accelerate, while others are one-paced or slow down and fade into the background (see Figure 2). At this stage, the race is starting to unfold. However, we are not at the final stages yet.
As the pace starts to quicken, horses, that have been racing, in mid-division or at the back of the field, will start to move closer to the pace. They might not make their move yet. Many jockeys will be manoeuvring their horses into a position, in order to make their move during Stage 4.
Some horses won’t be able to keep up with the pace. Other’s will keep up with the pace. However, they will be struggling. You might hear the racing commentator say that the horse is being “ridden along” or driven along”, or is “off the bridle”. These phrases mean that the jockey is struggling to get the horse to keep up with the pace.
There will be other horses, that are keeping up with the pace, without significant effort. If you have backed one of these horses, at long odds, you should get a lot of dobs during Stage 3. I mainly use horses that have odds between 10.0 and 20.0. Occasionally, I might go as low as 8.0. However, you do need to find horses, with reasonable odds, for them to dob at Stage 3.
Figure 2: Stage 3 of a Horse Race is when Originally Long-Priced Horses are Likely to DOB
Stage 4: Horses are getting close to the finish line and there may only be one or 2 involved at this stage.
If your horse started at a short price, it may not dob until it gets to Stage 4..
Of course, this depends on how many horses remain in contention at Stages 3 and 4. For example, even originally short-priced horses might dob, if there are only 2 horses left with a chance at earlier stages of the race.
D. The Professional Dobbing Strategy
For a detailed method of how I select horses for DOBBing, I recommend that you download my 27 page FREE eBook “DOBBing For Profit – Using Horse-Racing Form”. You will see the book in the sidebar.
We need to look at form to find a good dobbing selection. I use a service called “Inform Racing” to read form. I am an annual subscriber. You could try and use the free racing media to read form. However, I can assess a race, within few minutes using Inform Racing. If I had to use the standard racing media, it would take me hours to assess a race.
Below is a list of criteria. You don’t need your selection to meet all of these criteria. However, you need to know, which variables act positively towards your trade and which act negatively.
1. Race Selection
a) The Favourite Must NOT be at Short Odds
We want to choose races, in which, the favourite is not strong. If the favourite is too strong, it may have to fail before the other horses will shorten. I look at races, in which, the favourite’s odds are at 4.0 or above.
b) The Target Horse (ie the horse, that you are dobbing) must be at Long Odds
I like my horse to be at odds between 10.0 and 20.0. If these horses are still going strongly during Stage 3 of the race, they are likely to dob at this stage in the race. I do dob horses, with odds as low as 6.0. However, when
I dob, horses with lower odds, I want the form to be strong. The reason is that lower odds horses might not dob until they are close to Stage 4. Therefore, I need my horse to run well almost until the end of the race.
c) Handicaps are Best
Generally, we want to select horses, with a long racing history. The main benefit of a long racing history is that it gives us more form to base our selection on.
You will find horses, with a long racing history, in handicaps.
However, there are handicaps that we should avoid due to the lack of racing history. These include novice handicaps and handicaps, that are just open to 2 year olds (aka “nurseries”) and 3 year olds.
2. The Going
The going is the state of the ground. On turf, the going can be firm, good-firm, good, good-soft, soft, or heavy. On the all-weather, the going can be standard or standard-slow.
We want to know that our horse has previously run well on today’s going.
3. Distance
As with the going, we want to know that our dobbing horse has run well over today’s distance.
4. Course Direction
Horses often have a preference for running on a left-handed or a right-handed course. If you are using speed ratings, you will often find that a particular horse’s speed is dependent on the direction of the course. In other words, a horse might run faster on a left-handed course compared to a right-handed course. The situation may be the opposite for another horse.
5. Speed Ratings
You will need speed ratings to assess form. Figure 3 shows a screenshot of an Inform Racing card, which is where I get my speed ratings from.
Figure 3: Screenshot of an Inform Racing Card
Click Here to Go to Inform Racing
Affiliate Disclosure: I am an affiliate of Inform Racing. Therefore, if you buy Inform Racing through my affiliate link, I get a commission.
I’ve blurred the horse’s names for this article. On the race cards, you can see the speed ratings for the horse’s last 3 races. You can see more of the horse’s past speed ratings of you click on advanced search link.
There are speed ratings in the Racing Post. However, they are not set out so you can easily see the speed ratings of the past races of horses. There are a lot of other benefits of using Inform racing.
With Inform Racing, you can see the Draw, Runstyle, whether the horse is racing in a higher or lower Class that in its previous race, and how many pounds the horse has gone up or down in the weights. These are all on the race cards and you don’t need to go clicking on links and waiting for information to load.
You can also click on “advanced search” and get speed ratings just for the racing conditions of the current race. For example, you can just get the speed ratings for a particular distance, going and course direction either individually or combined. In th
In the example in Figure 4, I have looked up the speed ratings on good-firm going, over 6 furlongs and on a left-handed course.
This is one of the amazing advantages of using Inform Racing. By just filling out the boxes in the calculator and clicking on the search button, you have checked your horse’s speed ratings over the going, distance and course direction. You don’t need to work everything out individually.
Figure 4: Screenshot of an Inform Racing’s Advanced Search Calculator
Click Here to Go to Inform Racing
Affiliate Disclosure: I am an affiliate of Inform Racing. Therefore, if you buy Inform Racing through my affiliate link, I get a commission.
6. Recent Form
If a horse has recent form, we can have more trust in the form. I prefer horses to have run within the last 4 weeks. At sprint distances on the flat, I would like my horse to have run during the last 3 weeks.
7. Class
The class of race, that a horse has previously run in, is important. I never go for dobs on horses that are going up in class.
The best horses for dobbing, are horses that are dropping down in class.
You can see this information on the Inform Racing cards.
8. Handicap Ratings
In handicap races, horses carry different weights. The weightings depend on each horse’s past racing performances. The idea is that horses are weighted such that, the race will end up in a dead heat. However, there are several reasons why horses may have different winning chances in a race.
For example, a horse may have been running over an unsuitable going or distance. This would get its handicap rating down. Then, when the horse is entered in a race with suitable conditions, it will have a better chance of winning compared to its competitors.
So, another way of assessing a horse is to look up the horse’s last winning handicap mark and compare it with today’s mark.
You can quickly find this information by mousing over a horse’s name on the Inform Racing Cards.
If the horse’s last winning handicap mark is higher than its current mark, this means that the horse has won a race when carrying a higher weight than it is carrying today.
Therefore, a positive variable for dobbing is a horse, whose last winning handicap mark is higher than its mark today.
9. The Draw
On flat races, the stall that a horse comes out of is numbered. This is known as the “draw”. Some racecourses have a bias, where winners are more likely to come from certain stalls. Depending on the race course, it is usually high or low numbers that have an advantage. You want you horse to have a good draw. You can find this information on the Inform Racing cards.
10. Run style
Horses have a running style. In Figure 3, you can see that the Inform Racing card includes run styles. The run styles are numbered from 1 -4 and have the following meanings:
- Front Runner
- Held up behind Front Runner
- Held up in mid-division
- 4. Held up at back of the field
You may be surprised but I don’t like front runners for dobbing. At Stage 3 of a race, the other horses will be attempting to close in on the front runner. If the front runner does not have much finishing speed, it may not DOB during Stage 3 of the race. Generally, when front runners (that are not short-priced favourites) win races, the finishes are hard fought. The front runner has to try and fight off each challenger one by one.
However, the originally long-priced horses, that are closing in on the front runner are likely dob during Stage 3 of the race.
E. Conclusion
The idea of trading successfully, without putting any work into your trade, is a pipe dream. The gurus will point you towards statistics and front runners. This makes trading seem easy. It also makes writing articles and making videos easy for the gurus. They don’t need to put a lot of thought into their advice, especially because all the gurus are saying the same thing. When dobbing, it is important to view the race in a similar way to the way punters look at a race. Although punters look for winners and dobbers are just looking for the odds to halve, we are both depending on our horse’s performance on the track.
If you are a trader and you have never read form, you should learn.