A. What is Lay the Draw?
Lay the draw is probably the first football trading strategy that people hear about. In this post, I am going to discuss honestly whether or not this method can work.
The standard trading method for laying the draw is to:
- Lay the draw pre-match or at half-time if the score is still 0-0
- Cashout for a profit, when the first goal is scored
The idea is that, when a goal is scored, the odds of the draw will increase above pre-match levels. In the first half the odds of the draw will only increase above pre-match levels, following a goal, if the teams are equally matched or if the favourite scores.
B. Problems With Lay the Draw
There are several problems with laying the draw. The most obvious is the match ending up goalless. There is also the problem of the wrong side scoring first. In addition, even if your bet wins, you don’t know if you are getting long-term value.
1. The 0-0 Score
The obvious problem is the match ending up 0-0. This would be easy money if you didn’t have to worry about the 0-0 draw.
Your first thought might be, is it possible to place a back bet on 0-0 to cover your liability on your lay bet on the draw? The answer to that question is no.
The back bet on the 0-0 correct score will eat up your potential profits. In some cases, it will eat up more than your profits.
2. If a Goal is not Scored, the Odds of the Draw will Reduce
You also have the problem that, in the absence of a goal, the odds on the draw will decline at some point in the match.
If this happens, you will end up cashing out at a loss. That’s if you intend cashing out before the end of the game when the score stays 0-0.
3. The Draw Odds don’t always Increase Enough if you Lay the Draw Pre-match
When a goal is scored, you need to odds on the draw to increase to above the pre-match odds.
If you have a clear favourite and the outsider scores first, the odds of the draw might not increase enough to make a profit.
If the favourite is odds-on, an early goal scored by the outsider will usually reduce the odds of the draw.
You don’t have this problem with laying the draw at half-time. However, you do still have the problem of the 0-0 score-line.
C. A Comparison with Roulette
I want to compare the 0-0 score, when laying the draw, with the zero on a roulette wheel. Imagine a roulette wheel consisting of 36 numbers and a zero. Let’s say that you put £1 on each of the 36 numbers and you got odds of 36-1. In other words, you make £1 if the ball lands on anything apart from the zero. However, you lose £36 when the ball lands on the zero.
1. Break Even Situation at Best
This is a break even situation in the long run. So, 36/37 times, you win £1 and 1/37 times, you lose £36. However, let’s say that you are paying 2% commission on your wins. Now, you only win 98p for your wins, which puts you in a minus ev situation. In other words, you lose money in the long run.
With 36 numbers working for you, you will have incredibly long winning streaks. However, every now and again, the ball will land on zero and this will wipe out more than your profits when you include commission.
2. Similarity to 0-0 when Laying the Draw
This is a similar scenario to laying the draw. The 0-0 score is equivalent to the zero on the roulette wheel. If you are thinking that you can get around this by laying the draw at half-time, you are wrong. You will just be playing on a different roulette wheel, with the odds adjusted to compensate for the increased chances of the ball landing on zero.
The long winning streaks is why, I think that some people believe that they are winning with lay the draw (even though they are not winning).
D. Where is the Value?
There are 2 possible points where you can get value. The first is when you lay the draw and the second is when you cash out after a goal. You have to be getting value from at least one of these bets to overcome the commission and make a profit.
Let’s look at the second bet first. You back the draw after a goal has been scored.
Now, I haven’t got a lay the draw method to sell. Therefore, I don’t have a financial interest on whether the method works or not. So, I am completely unbiased.
1. The Second Bet and The Market Over-Reacts Assumption
This is what the gurus say:
“The market over-reacts after a goal is scored?”
How many times have you heard this? One thing that I have learnt during my life is to question everything. There are some statements and opinions that you hear over and over again in life. Most people will believe these repeated statements without questioning the information.
The second thing that I have learnt, is that a lot of so-called education on the internet is really a marketing trick. The marketer’s idea is to adjust your beliefs in order to make you buy their stuff.
So, they say that the market over-reacts. How do they know this? If this was true, it would mean that you could back the draw after a goal is scored and expect to make a long-term profit. And who are these people, who go crazy and lay the draw or back the team that scored after the first goal of the match?
Is there any evidence for the market over-reacting after the first goal of a match? In fact, it might under-react due to people, who have layed the draw, pushing the back price down by backing the draw after a goal.
So, we can’t find proof that there is value for the second bet. So, let’s look at the first bet.
2. The First Bet: How to Get Value
I will explain 2 methods on how I used to lay the draw pre-match. This is trading and as such, these methods are not risk-free. I don’t use these methods often anymore. I will explain why later. What we are aiming to do is, to get value on our bets pre-match and then, lay the draw for the first 15 – 20 minutes of the match.
There are 2 reasons for only going for 15 – 20 minutes of the match.
Firstly, if a goal is not scored, we can get out without a loss. That’s assuming that you managed to get value from your pre-match bet or bets. I will explain what I mean by this in the next 2 sections.
Secondly, if the first goal is scored earlier in the first half, the odds on the draw increase more compared to the first goal being scored later in the first half. If you lay the draw pre-match, the least profitable time for the first goal is the last 15 minutes before half-time. Therefore, we are going for, what is potentially, the most profitable time of the first half for laying the draw. I will list all the criteria later. For now, you need to know that we are going for equally matched teams. The reason for this will become apparent later.
Method 1: Put an Order in to Lay the Draw at Low Odds
In the morning before, say, an evening match, I would look at the Betfair graph and see which odds money has already been matched on the draw. There will usually be a range of odds where the money has been matched. I would put in an order to lay the draw at a price that is right at the bottom of this range, possibly even a tick or 2 lower than the bottom of this range.
The idea is that the odds on the draw will drop to that level and my bet would get matched and then, the odds of the draw will move back up by 2 or 3 ticks or more. Usually, the bet wouldn’t get matched because I was asking for odds that were too low. However, the times that it got matched, the odds would usually move back up. My strike rate was high because my order was for very low odds. Because I wasn’t afraid of missing trades, I was getting good odds when my bet got matched. I have found that not fearing missing trades is one of the keys to successful trading.
So, let’s say that I layed the draw at 3.35 and the starting price was 3.5. I would stay in the trade until a goal was scored or the odds on the draw dropped to 3.35. In other words, I would use the 3 tick advantage to buy time. In a match that is predicted to have a lot of goals, I would expect 2 ticks to buy me 10-15 mins and 3 ticks to buy me 15-20 mins.
This wouldn’t always be the case. If the game starts out scrappy, the odds will fall much faster. If there is a lot of end to end action, the odds will fall slowly.
Method 2: Dutch the 2 Teams when their Odds are High
An alternative method is to dutch the 2 teams at different points in time and then back the draw after a goal has been scored. The idea is to take advantage of the swings in the betting and back each team at their highest odds or close to their highest odds. Of course, this can go wrong and one of the teams can continue to get backed. To have success using this method, it helps if you follow the top football clubs . It’s a matter of looking at the odds and thinking that that one of the teams has been backed too much and the market should correct itself.
Note that this method can be combined with various bookmakers’ offers. You have to monitor the bookmakers’ odds on Oddschecker and try to look for situations, where the odds on one of the teams has reached a high point and you need a close match between the bookmaker’s odds and the betting exchange odds.
I still use such swings as a pre-match trading method. However, I seldom go in-play and effectively, lay the draw.
E. Other Criteria
There are some criteria that might help to reduce our chances of losing. However, you always need to ask the question: are these criteria factored into the odds.
1. Select a Match that is Predicted to have a Lot of Goals
The odds on the 0-0 correct score gives you an idea of how likely it is that a goal will be scored. The odds for Over/Under 0.5 goals will give you similar information.
2. Select matches with teams that start the game fast
You want an early goal. Therefore, you want to choose teams that start full of intention of scoring an early goal. These days, I would say that Liverpool are the best side for this.
3. Select a Match where the 2 teams are Evenly Matched
For example, Chelsea vs Tottenham, with odds as follows is a perfect example:
| Chelsea | Draw | Tottenham | |
| Odds | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
The idea here is that, whichever side scores a goal, the odds of the draw will increase above the odds at kick off. You can have some variation from exactly the same odds. However, the more variation from equal odds, the more danger you have of not profiting if the outsider scores first.
For example, the odds below are fine. There is only a slight difference between the odds of Arsenal and Man Utd. If either side scores in the first 15 minutes, you stand to make a profit.
| Arsenal | Draw | Man Utd | |
| Odds | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
However, the following odds are a little more awkward. In the game below, we have a clear favourite in Bournemouth.
| Bournemouth | Draw | Stoke | |
| Odds | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
If the favourite scores, you will make a big profit. In fact, your profit will be larger than if the favourite scores in an evenly matched game. The problem is that if the outsider scores, you are not guaranteed a profit. If you do manage to make a profit, it will be a small profit.
The market will usually expect the home side to equalise and therefore, you aren’t likely to see a huge change in the odds of the draw.
What about Odds-on favourites?
| Liverpool | Draw | Watford | |
| Odds | 1.6 | 4.5 | 6.25 |
For a low-risk strategy, leave these alone. In the above example, you will make money if the favourite scores first. However, if the first goal is scored by the outsider, the odds of the draw will definitely reduce. In this instance, you will lose.
We are talking about the first 15 minutes of the game. Obviously, if the outsider scores the first goal towards the end of the match, the odds of the draw will increase.
F. The Advantages of this Method
There are 2 main advantages of this method over other lay the draw methods
Firstly, it is unlikely that you will lose a lot of money when it goes wrong. The strategy is dependent on getting good odds pre-match. If you fail, you just close the trade pre-match for a small loss. If you succeed, you go in play.
Secondly, you have a clear exit point. If a goal is not scored by the time the odds on the draw drop to the the odds that you obtained pre-match, you exit the trade and lose nothing. If a goal is scored before the odds on the draw fall to the level of your pre-match odds, you cash out for a profit.
As a method for laying the draw, this is a reasonably safe strategy. The safest method is to put an order in to lay the draw pre-match. The only way that you can lose is by underestimating how low the odds on the draw can go pre-match.
Dutching the teams is riskier. This involves more skill, which is the subject for another post. You are more likely to get matched, when dutching the teams.
If you are dutching the teams and there is no swing back, you can lose or just break even.
In the cases, where you lose or break even, you should cash out for a loss and not go in play.
I would only use the method for matches between top clubs with top strikers. These will be high profile matches, where the market will be strong. The odds on the match result don’t fluctuate wildly in high profile matches where there is a lot of money matched in the markets. Therefore, even if you didn’t get the best odds pre-match, you would be unlucky to lose more than a couple of ticks.
G. Why I Seldom Lay the Draw
So, you might be wondering why I hardly ever bother with this method. The reason that I don’t use these strategies often is because of bet 2. I haven’t found any evidence that the market over-reacts. So, my thinking was that, why not just cash out my winnings pre-match. If I beat the starting price on the draw or the 2 teams and go in-play, I am gambling definite winnings to try and gain more when there is an early goal. Since that I am not sure that the second bet is plus ev, it makes more sense to cash the money out pre-match.
Getting good odds for the draw or for both teams is a skill in itself. Over time, I got pretty good at this. That’s a subject for another video. So, for me, laying the draw evolved into a simple pre-match trading strategy.
H. Lay the Draw at Half-time
Typically, people who lay the draw at half-time select matches where there is an odds-on favourite. Their reasoning is that, when the match is one-sided, there is more chance of a goal. In addition, even if the underdog scores in the second half, you should make a profit.
However, you still have a problem with finding value between your 2 bets. It is difficult to get the an odds advantage, that buys you time, for laying the draw at half-time. There are 2 reasons for this. Firstly, you don’t have long at half-time to get good odds for laying the draw. Secondly, you don’t have a range for the draw odds at the start of half-time to know whether you are getting good odds.
Many of the lay the draw at half-time guys will want the home side to be the favourite.
1. The Home Side Advantage Assumption
Is this another one of those assumptions that makes intuitive sense and is repeated over and over, which results in not questioning it and simply believing that this is true?
I will explain this later.
So, their reasoning. The lay the draw guys believe that, a favourite home side will always be trying to win. They are unlikely to settle for a draw. Home sides tend to want their 3 points badly.
By contrast, an away side may settle for a draw even if they are favourite.
That is their logic. My logic is, isn’t home side advantage versus away side advantage factored into the odds?
Say, you have 2 matches.
The first match has half-time odds of:
Nil Nil: 4.0
Team A (Home): 1.43
Draw: 5.0
Team B (Away): 8.2
The second match has odds of
Nil Nil: 4.0
Team B (Home): 8.2
Draw: 5.0
Team C (Away): 1.43
So, Team B features in both matches. In the first match, Team B is the away side and in the second match Team B is the home side. So, my question is, are the 4.0 odds for 0-0 in the first match different from the 4.0 odds in the second match? Of course, it isn’t.
The only way that the home side advantage could work is, if the odds on the draw will increase more after a goal when a home side favourite scores first compared to an away side favourite. I don’t know whether this is true. In any case, this is not the argument that the lay the draw gurus present.
2. Other Absurd Reasoning
People, who promote lay the draw at half-time argue that:
You win more money by laying the draw at half-time compared to laying the draw pre-match
You get better odds for lay the draw at half-time compared to laying the draw pre-match
If you are falling for this kind of logic, you should probably question whether you have the right skill set for trading. Yes, you do win more money if a goal is scored in the second half. This is because the odds are shorter. However, the odds are likely to reflect the probabilities of a goal being scored.
Using the same logic, you could argue that you get even better odds if you lay the draw 5 minutes before the end of the match. You will also win more money if a goal is scored in the last 5 minutes.
When it is put that way, it is more obvious that the odds reflect probabilities. You win more money because the odds are shorter. The odds are shorter because there is less chance of winning.
3. Using Form
It may be possible to find good lay the draw opportunities by using recent form. I trade pre-match successfully and I use recent form to anticipate which direction the odds will move. Therefore, I would guess that there is a way of winning with lay the draw by using either pre-match form, in-play form or both.
Getting the relevant in-play form statistics would involve watching or listening to tons of matches. There are businesses that sell lay the draw systems based on statistics. However, with so many dodgy trading systems around, it is difficult to know whether you are buying a genuine method that works.
H. Summary
My view is that there isn’t a clear advantage in laying the draw in its basic form.
If people have to resort to reasoning that doesn’t make sense to convince others that laying the draw works, this probably isn’t a plus ev trade.
You have to remember that odds are odds. I’m not saying that there isn’t a way of making it work. However, to be able to win with laying the draw, you need to find something extra. If you can’t find that extra value, you are most likely to lose in the long-term.
This might seem like a negative post. However, there are 2 main skills to trading. The first is being able to reason logically and the second is to be able to identify patterns that repeat. Trading is not just about finding a method that works. It’s also about rejecting ideas that do not work.